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The association between stock market and exchange rates for advanced and emerging markets – A case study of the Swiss and Polish economies
This paper investigates structural differences in the causal relationships between stock and currency markets in advanced and emerging economies of Switzerland and Poland. A bootstrap-based linear causality analysis along with nonlinear causality tests were conducted for both countries. The results of this linear causality analysis indicated that for the Swiss economy the portfolio approach seems to be appropriate, while both traditional and portfolio approaches suit Poland. On the other hand the results of nonlinear analysis provided a solid basis for claiming that for Switzerland both approaches are acceptable, while for Poland nonlinear causality was not reported in any direction. The results of the nonlinear causality tests were generally unchanged after GARCH(1,1) filtration. The existence of strong causal links in direction from the stock to currency markets of both economies seems to have a practical application for investors, and may help them to hedge their portfolios against currency shocks.
1 Introduction
The relationship between the exchange rate and the performance of stock markets is one of the most important issues for economists around the world. This is not surprisin...